Understanding The Odds And Probability Of Long-Term And Short-Term Bets
Fri 26 May, by Arnaldo Brito

Comprehending The Odds And Probability Of Short-term vs Long-term Bets

For bettors who want to take a step back, re-evaluate their wagering strategies, and plot a more profitable course for the future, one of the first things they must do is understand the odds and probability of long-term and short-term bets. Only when they have a complete grasp of this concept can they aim to make the necessary changes to achieve the desired results. So, the big question now is, how do you unravel the math being the odds and probability of wagers? Here’s all you need to get started!

Basic Guide To Understanding The Odds And Probability Of Long-Term And Short-Term Bets

Understanding and calculating the odds and probability of long-term and short-term bets begins with knowing how to convert odds into probability. It is an essential step because it’s the first clear clue to determining whether a wager is even worth placing in the first place.

How To Convert Odds Into Probability

Because there are different types of odds, a different approach is usually adopted for converting each odds type into probability. Keep in mind that there are several tools that you can leverage to perform this task for you. However, if you’d like to do it by hand, here’s how to start.

For Fractional Odds

Also sometimes referred to as British odds, these odds types feature as fractions. Examples of these odds are 2/3, 7/1, 8/5, and so on. However, some bookies may present them as ratios. In this case, they’ll appear as two-to-three, seven-to-one, and eight-to-five, respectively. Let’s assume that your favorite sportsbook offers you a 2/3 odds of Manchester United beating Liverpool. You must divide the numerator (2) by the denominator (3) and multiply by 100 to get your probability value. In this case, that would be;

2/3 = 0.667 * 100 = 66.7%.

For Decimal Odds

This type of odds shows a punter what they stand to win for every $1 they stake in a sporting event. As the name suggests, they appear in decimals like 1.00, 2.00, 3.00, etc. So, if your bookie were to give you 3.00 odds of Bayern Munich beating Borussia Dortmund, you divide one by 3.00 and multiply that answer by 100. It would make the probability value;

1/3.00 = 0.333 * 100 = 33.3%.

For American Odds

These odds carry a plus or minus sign before their numerical odds value. Also known as money line odds, the plus sign is assigned to the event that is less likely to happen but has a higher payout. The minus sign is given to the possibility that it’s more likely to happen but has a lower payout. Let’s say your bookie gives England a -350 odds of winning the 2015 ICC Cricket World Cup. You can calculate the probability value;

350/100 + 350 = 0.778 * 100 = 77.7%.

The higher this probability value is, the more likely the event is to happen.

Bottom Line

And that’s how you get the odds and probability value of long-term and short-term wagers. While performing your calculations, remember that these odds rarely reflect the actual probability of an event happening and compensate for that accordingly.

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