Value Bets In Soccer Betting
A great way to increase your winning chances is to find and exploit a bookie's weakness. As a result, value bets have become increasingly popular among expert and regular bettors. However, what are value bets, and why should you note them? Read on to find out more.
What Are Value Bets?
Value bets are a form of gambling in which you search for betting odds that give you a clear advantage over a particular bookie and then bet on them. Place value bets when you realize that the outcome of an event occurring is much higher than the odds provided by the bookie. Value bets can therefore be considered regular bets with some added advantage. It is, however, essential to conducting thorough research and calculations before concluding that particular odds offer value bets. Moreover, value betting applies mainly to sports betting since each outcome does not have an exact statistical probability.
How To Identify Value Bets?
A value bet is the probability of an outcome more significant than the odds offered. As a result, there is a statistically positive expectation of return. As a result, value betting involves betting when your chances of winning exceed those estimated by the bookmaker.
Here is the step-by-step process:
- Estimate the implied probability;
- Calculate the fair odds based on the actual likelihood;
- Calculate the expected return using the expected value formula;
- When the expected return is positive, we have found a value bet.
Here's an example!
As an example, let's say Juventus has 3.6 odds of winning.
If they offer the odds at 3.6, the probability of Juventus winning is 27.7% (100/3.6 = 27.7%).
Nevertheless, based on the calculations, Juventus is expected to win by 45%, making this bet worth 100/45 = 2.2.
Your first value bet is here!
Based on the expected value formula (Fair probability – Market probability) / Market probability, we immediately understand that this match should produce a positive outcome:
EV = (45% - 27,7%) / 27,7% = 0,95
Finding True Probability
Value betting requires correctly calculating a bet's odds and actual probability. There are two ways:
- By analyzing technical trends and comparing average prices, assuming that the average cost is close to fair odds (as most competitors do), and then assuming that the average cost is above fair odds
- Based on fundamental analysis (shots, passes, training, goals, matches won/lost, etc.) and weighting the characteristics of the team against the other team characteristics based on its past performance
What Is The Difference Between a Regular Bet And a Value Bet?
Value bets differ significantly from regular bets; it is noticeable by calculating your odds. Sportsbooks use betting software to calculate odds. The odds of an average bet are rarely overvalued or undervalued. Value bets, however, are often priced below their actual value.
What Is a Value Bet When The Odds Are Low Or High
When your calculated odds are low, your bet becomes a value bet. In this way, you can make a value bet using the formula (Fair probability - Market probability) / Market probability. In contrast, if the odds are high, the buy bet formula above will return a negative number, which means it is not a value bet.
Setting your odds is the key to value finding. To master this art, you must focus on the fixtures in any situation. There are always variables at play when there is a change in free agents, weather conditions, or salary considerations. There are, however, certain aspects of every game you can count on. Think like a bookmaker by focusing your attention on those fixtures. Make odds that you wouldn't be comfortable betting on. This "discomfort" tactic helps newer bettors set odds like a pro. Though difficult, it's a great exercise that helps you find real value. Over time, you can expand to full-blown predictive betting models.
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